Macroeconomic volatility emerges as top business threat for 2025

How exposed do you believe your company will be to the following key threats in the next 12 months?

Macroeconomic volatility has returned as the predominant concern for global business leaders, with 67% reporting moderate to extreme exposure to this threat in the coming year. This finding from our latest CEO Survey signals a fundamental shift in risk perception and highlights the need for strategic resilience.

The data reveals a clear hierarchy of threats facing businesses today. Macroeconomic volatility leads the pack (67% reporting significant exposure) alongside geopolitical conflicts (67%), suggesting a complex interplay between economic and political risk factors. The landscape is further complicated by workforce challenges, with 61% of leaders expressing concern about the availability of skilled workers.

What’s particularly noteworthy is the relative positioning of technological disruption (55%) and climate change (41%) in terms of perceived exposure. This suggests that while digital transformation remains crucial, immediate economic and geopolitical challenges are commanding greater attention from leadership teams.

For C-suite leaders, these findings point to three critical areas of focus:

1. Enhanced scenario planning: organisations must develop more sophisticated forecasting models that integrate multiple risk vectors. This means moving beyond traditional financial modelling to incorporate geopolitical analysis, supply chain vulnerability assessments and workforce availability projections. Key actions include establishing cross-functional risk committees, implementing rolling quarterly forecasts with multiple scenarios and developing early warning systems that track leading indicators across all major risk categories.
2. Workforce resilience: the talent challenge requires a dual approach of both defensive and offensive strategies. Organisations should implement comprehensive upskilling programmes that target critical capability gaps, while simultaneously developing flexible talent models that can adapt to economic uncertainty. This includes creating strategic partnerships with educational institutions, developing internal talent marketplaces to optimise skill deployment and implementing AI-enabled workforce planning tools to predict and address future skill needs.
3. Balanced innovation: leaders must resist the temptation to sacrifice long-term innovation initiatives in response to short-term economic pressures. Instead, focus on creating an innovation portfolio that balances quick wins with strategic bets. This means allocating resources across three horizons: immediate efficiency improvements, medium-term capability building and long-term transformative initiatives. Particular attention should be paid to innovations that simultaneously address multiple risk factors, such as AI solutions that both improve efficiency and address skill gaps.

Successful navigation of today’s business environment requires an increasingly nuanced and integrated approach to risk management. Leaders must balance short-term economic pressures with long-term strategic imperatives, while maintaining the agility to respond to rapidly evolving threats.